For the past decade, East Asian populations have been steadily declining. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have all entered negative growth, with populations expected to fall dramatically by 2050. Despite its financial incentives and loosening of the one child policy, China’s growth rate is still slowing down. Singapore is not exempt from this trend, as birth rates are at a dismal 1.10 births per woman—far lower than the 2.0 replacement rate. Population decline is the result of two concurrent trends: rapid ageing and sluggish birth rates. When birth rates are low (or even declining), there is insufficient new blood to make up for the rising number of elderly citizens, resulting in future population shrinkage. In East Asia, these trends are caused by factors such as: 1. Longer life expectancies: as standards of living increase, so do the life expectancies of citizens. This results in a greater number of dependents and intensifies caregiving needs, since these dependents live longer lives. The demand for new blood to support and replace the ageing population thus increases significantly. 2. Economic advancement: with the rise of East Asia as an economic powerhouse, more young people are prioritising career success. Professional achievement has also become necessary for survival in an age where living costs are skyrocketing. This problem is especially pronounced for women, who have to bear the unfair double burden of working and childbearing. Given these considerations, young professionals are starting families later in life to become financially stable first, or forgoing children altogether due to the extremely high opportunity cost. Both fertility and birth rates drop as a result. 3. New cultural beliefs: as living costs are high and urban life is fast-paced, many East Asian parents subscribe to the idea of “focused nurturing”. They believe that with fewer children (one to two), they can focus their already-limited resources on maximising their children’s potential. Having too many children thins their scarce time, money and attention. Urban parents thus plan for fewer children, slowing the birth rate down. When populations shrink, problems arise. Who will keep the economy afloat in the future, and will there be enough manpower to support dependents? How can economic growth be sustained and even increased without enough labour? There are also more existential questions: will our nation survive into the future, if there are fewer and fewer of us every year? Bearing in mind current circumstances, a more realistic expectation would be to achieve a quasi-stationary level of stability: to increase the birth rate slightly above 2020 levels and keep it constant. To do this, immigration is needed. Immigration solves several problems. Foreign labour temporarily plugs existing labour gaps in the workforce, especially in critical niches such as eldercare that are chronically manpower-short. Foreigners who settle down in their host countries also start families there, raising the birth rate. Cosmopolitan cities with a history of open immigration, such as Singapore, will find it much easier to attract new residents. Singapore’s declining population issue is thus less challenging to solve than Japan and South Korea, culturally-homogeneous countries traditionally resistant to immigration. When balanced with considerations such as social integration and cultural diversity, immigration is a good and effective solution. The cases of Japan and South Korea, contrasted with that of Singapore, only reinforce the importance of immigration to economic functioning. On top of encouraging immigration, Singapore would do well to stay abreast of grassroots developments and examine its pro-natal policies frequently, so that our population has a chance to recover.

For the past decade, East Asian populations have been steadily declining. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have all entered negative growth, with populations expected to fall dramatically by 2050. Despite its financial incentives and loosening of the one child policy, China’s growth rate is still slowing down. Singapore is not exempt from this trend, as birth rates are at a dismal 1.10 births per woman—far lower than the 2.0 replacement rate. Population decline is the result of two concurrent trends: rapid ageing and sluggish birth rates. When birth rates are low (or even declining), there is insufficient new blood to make up for the rising number of elderly citizens, resulting in future population shrinkage. In East Asia, these trends are caused by factors such as: 1. Longer life expectancies: as standards of living increase, so do the life expectancies of citizens. This results in a greater number of dependents and intensifies caregiving needs, since these dependents live longer lives. The demand for new blood to support and replace the ageing population thus increases significantly. 2. Economic advancement: with the rise of East Asia as an economic powerhouse, more young people are prioritising career success. Professional achievement has also become necessary for survival in an age where living costs are skyrocketing. This problem is especially pronounced for women, who have to bear the unfair double burden of working and childbearing. Given these considerations, young professionals are starting families later in life to become financially stable first, or forgoing children altogether due to the extremely high opportunity cost. Both fertility and birth rates drop as a result. 3. New cultural beliefs: as living costs are high and urban life is fast-paced, many East Asian parents subscribe to the idea of “focused nurturing”. They believe that with fewer children (one to two), they can focus their already-limited resources on maximising their children’s potential. Having too many children thins their scarce time, money and attention. Urban parents thus plan for fewer children, slowing the birth rate down. When populations shrink, problems arise. Who will keep the economy afloat in the future, and will there be enough manpower to support dependents? How can economic growth be sustained and even increased without enough labour? There are also more existential questions: will our nation survive into the future, if there are fewer and fewer of us every year? Bearing in mind current circumstances, a more realistic expectation would be to achieve a quasi-stationary level of stability: to increase the birth rate slightly above 2020 levels and keep it constant. To do this, immigration is needed. Immigration solves several problems. Foreign labour temporarily plugs existing labour gaps in the workforce, especially in critical niches such as eldercare that are chronically manpower-short. Foreigners who settle down in their host countries also start families there, raising the birth rate. Cosmopolitan cities with a history of open immigration, such as Singapore, will find it much easier to attract new residents. Singapore’s declining population issue is thus less challenging to solve than Japan and South Korea, culturally-homogeneous countries traditionally resistant to immigration. When balanced with considerations such as social integration and cultural diversity, immigration is a good and effective solution. The cases of Japan and South Korea, contrasted with that of Singapore, only reinforce the importance of immigration to economic functioning. On top of encouraging immigration, Singapore would do well to stay abreast of grassroots developments and examine its pro-natal policies frequently, so that our population has a chance to recover.
via Immigration SG LLP - IASG